The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its 2020 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2020) on Wed. (Jan. 29). The report provides modeled projections of domestic energy markets through 2050, and it includes cases with different assumptions about macroeconomic growth, world oil prices, future costs of renewable power generation technologies, and technological progress. Link to AEO 2020 Page (Natural Gas portion of AEO 2020 attached.) The two LNG takeaways:
- In the AEO2020 Reference case, pipeline exports to Mexico and LNG exports to world markets increase moderately until 2025, after which pipeline exports to Mexico slow. LNG exports continue to rise through 2030 before remaining relatively flat for the remainder of the projection period.
- All LNG export facilities and expansions currently under construction are expected to be completed by 2025. U.S. LNG-export capacity will continue to serve growing global LNG demand, particularly in emerging Asian markets as long as U.S. natural gas prices remain competitive. As U.S.-sourced LNG becomes less competitive in world markets after 2030, export volumes level off.